March 3, 2023
"Unbearable victims"
Before Chancellor Scholz's US visit, reports indicate a change of course for the West in the Ukraine war: Kiev is to negotiate with Moscow. Background: Mood change in the USA
WASHINGTON/BERLIN (Owner report) - Before today's conversation between US President Joe Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, reports suggest a possible change of course for the West in the Ukraine war. The background is, among other things, the realization that the number of war deaths could become "unbearable" for Ukrainian society and the continuously shrinking approval of the US population for the Biden administration's war policy; the latter could possibly endanger Biden's re-election. Biden reportedly pointed out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently during his visit to Kiev that the funds that Washington can provide are limited. As it is said, Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron suggested to Zelensky during his visit to Paris to "start considering peace talks with Moscow". Ukraine is not to be admitted to NATO, but is to be upgraded with Western weapons. A similar result was already up for debate at the end of March 2022, but was sabotaged by the West. Of course, Ukrainian successes on the battlefield could change the mood in the West again.
Mood change in the USA
Before today's conversation between US President Joe Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the well-connected Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung hints at a possible change of course for the Biden administration. The background is a change of mood in the United States, to which the White House attaches some importance with a view to the presidential election next year. For example, a recent survey shows that the proportion of those who support arms deliveries to Ukraine has fallen from a good 60 percent of the US population in May 2022 to 48 percent. 1] Only 37 percent still approve of direct financial support for the Ukrainian government, while 38 percent reject it. The proportion of those who support sanctions against Russia has also fallen from 71 percent to 63 percent; 59 percent said at the same time that sanctions should not be at the expense of the US economy. If the development continues - and this is considered likely - then the Ukraine war worsens President Biden's chances of re-election. In addition, the United States is increasingly exacerbating the power struggle against China. Some in the US establishment have been warning for some time against fighting too much against Russia in Eastern Europe; this costs, it is said, energies that are dependent on in the Asia-Pacific region. 2]
"Stay realistic"
Against this background, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung describes Interna from the conversation that Biden held on the 20th. February in Kiev with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The content therefore differed significantly from the demonstratively determined tones that Biden struck in official statements. So Biden tweeted on the 20th. February, he traveled to the Ukrainian capital to reaffirm "our unwavering commitment to democracy, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine." "Internally" but, it is said, he pointed out to Zelensky ... how much money the American taxpayer Washington has invested in the meantime. 3] Although Biden "gets" that "Kiev demands more." But he "referred to be president to heal America, which requires strong investments." Although he will not publicly "ask Zelensky to test at a certain point ... whether negotiations can not take place". Nevertheless, there is hope in parts of the government that the Ukrainian president will remain realistic. The time frame for the turn to "realism" is presumably the presidential election campaign in the United States.
"Told decisions"
The hints that Washington can set a new course are in line with a report published by the Wall Street Journal at the end of last week. According to this, the conviction is now asserting in Europe that Ukraine will "not be able to expel the Russians from eastern Ukraine and Crimea." 4] "We constantly repeat that Russia must not win," a French government official is quoted; but if the war continues "long enough in this intensity", "the losses of Ukraine would become unbearable". According to the report, President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Scholz Zelensky declared during his visit to Paris on the evening of the 8th. February, he must "start considering peace talks with Moscow." Macron initially praised Zelensky as a "great leader in the war", but then told him that he had to "get into a political statesman and make difficult decisions" in the end. Similarly, the new President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, has now also spoken publicly. Pavel, a general, pointed out that the reconquest of parts of Ukrainian territory could "cost more lives than society will be bearable." "The Ukrainians" would then have to "start thinking about a different result."
Sales market for the Western arms industry
According to the Wall Street Journal, Great Britain, France and Germany have already begun to make preparations for this case. These are measures intended to provide Ukraine with security from another Russian attack. As the newspaper writes, the country's NATO membership is not planned. 5] The deployment of NATO troops on the territory of Ukraine is therefore not planned either, nor is a guarantee of assistance in the form of an extension of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty to the country. Rather, it is about equipping Kiev with military means that allowed it to fend off any Russian attacks independently. Specifically, there is talk of the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces should be upgraded with weapons from Western production or "closely integrated into the supply chain of the Western arms industry". Germany, for example, has already shown the willingness to deliver air defense systems, battle tanks, heavy artillery and ammunition. Great Britain is thinking about the delivery of fighter jets. It is fitting that the United Kingdom has now begun to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. Decisions, it is said, will be taken at the NATO summit on the 11th. /12. July in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius.
As in March 2022
The plans to guarantee the security of Ukraine are very similar to the state of negotiations between Moscow and Kiev at the end of March 2022. At that time, both sides were essentially in agreement on a ceasefire, possibly even a peace solution, thanks to Israeli and Turkish mediation. It essentially provided that Ukraine would declare permanent neutrality; in return, Russia was ready to move its troops to the level before the 24th. February 2022 to withdraw. The agreement was sabotaged by the NATO states at the time - in the hope of being able to weaken Russia considerably (german-foreign-policy.com reported [6]). Since then, countless people have died and immense material damage has been caused in Ukraine. A noticeable advantage for Ukraine compared to the prevented agreement of the end of March 2022, on the other hand, is not apparent.
Uncertainty of war
Of course, it is anything but certain that - as outlined by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the Wall Street Journal - peace talks will take place in the foreseeable future. Thus, any Ukrainian successes on the battlefield could cause the West to try to achieve a further weakening of Russia at any time: until the next turn of war skills.
[1] Aamer Madhani, Emily Swanson: Ukraine aid support softens in the US: AP-NORC Poll. apnews.com 15.02.2023.
[2] Michael McCormick, Kevin Petit: The boiling frog: China's rise and the West's distraction. mwi.usma.edu 30.06.2022.
[3] Markus Wehner, Majid Sattar: A visit in an unusual format. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 02.03.2023.
[4], [5] Bojan Pancevski, Laurence Norman: NATO's Biggest European Members Float Defense Pact With Ukraine. wsj.com 24.02.2023.
[6] S. on the war goals of the West.